I'm really starting to dread the UK's forthcoming General Election

[Lencoboy]

I'm particularly scared of Nigel Farage and Reform UK right now, especially the ever-present chance they might just end up winning the GE by a whisker, despite Labour still remaining well ahead in the overall opinion poll ratings, but they're now down to an average of approximately 37%, and Reform UK have now hit 19% for the first time ever, now even just edging ahead of the Tories by 1% (meanwhile, the Tories have held steady at 18% over the last couple of polls).

I know most people still seem to be of the opinion that a national victory for Farage and Co still remains highly unlikely in this particular GE, but by the same token I recall many people (including my own dad) saying back in 2016 that they didn't believe that there was a cat in hell's chance of neither Brexit nor Trump winning back then, but look exactly at what actually happened and how totally wrong they all were.

When I discussed it with my dad this morning he said he believes that most people have wised up a fair bit more since those politically strange times of the late 2010s, but I'm still not entirely convinced myself, and still very much have the 'I'll believe it when I see it' kind of feeling about the possibility of Starmer and Co winning, even though I really hope that they do this time round.

I also seriously hope Starmer and Co don't end up having any profoundly controversial moments/scandals between now and 4th July, as I fear that even the slightest false move could ruin them, and Farage will inevitably milk it to death. I also hope Labour don't start getting complacent either between now and 4th July, as I see them (and to a certain extent the Lib Dems) as the only remaining hope for us all, even though they certainly won't be the absolute panacea to all of this country's ills.

On the other hand, if Starmer and Co do end up winning, I dread to imagine what Farage and Co might do; e.g, playing the Trumpite 'the election was stolen/rigged by Starmer and Co narrative and possibly even attempting to incite some kind of 6/1/21 Capitol-style 'copycat' insurrection, or are we generally more civilised than that in this country?

[Lencoboy]

This morning I saw a post on a thread on another forum about the forthcoming GE that despite initially making my blood boil, actually made me chuckle in a big way.

This one person (who is in their mid 20s) who is from West Yorks, admitted they voted for the Tories in 2019 and will still be again this year, simply because they can't stand Yvette Cooper, who is their local sitting MP, and is blaming her for the closure of their local library, sports centre, the cancellation of their local carnival some years back, etc, plus that person's friends on Facebook have told them (both in 2019 and 2024) that Labour are bad.

Other persons on that forum have said that person isn't living in the real world and that they are actually voting for what they're complaining about, as those 'cuts' are imposed by sitting central govt (the Tories), not Yvette Cooper (which were probably beyond her control), plus Yvette Cooper is just one Labour MP and hardly the 'be-all-and-end-all' of the Labour Party as a whole.

Just demonstrates how gullible and naive many people sadly still are, and will believe almost anything and everything they're told, either on social media or IRL.

[Lencoboy]

Well Labour appear to have rebounded a bit in the opinion poll ratings following the relatively lowly 37% rating by YouGov on 12-13th June (now back up to the early-mid 40s once again on average since then), while Reform UK's polling has since held relatively steady in the mid-late teens after peaking (so far) at 19% also by the same poll on 12-13th June (currently 16%), though I suppose it's likely to take at least 2-3 days before Reform's manifesto (announced yesterday) starts to have any significant impact on the opinion poll ratings (or not).

The Tories have seen a very minute rebound of approximately 2% (currently 21%) in the latest poll ratings, but probably not really statistically significant in the grand scheme of things.

The Lib Dems have also rebounded over the past week or so, albeit fluctuating from poll to poll.

[Sparkle1984]

I share your concerns. As an autistic person, I'm particularly worried about their plans to scrap the Equality Act, as that's what allows us to request reasonable adjustments at work. This also affects anyone with a health condition (including anxiety), disability or indeed anyone from a marginalised group.

[Lencoboy]

I share your concerns. As an autistic person, I'm particularly worried about their plans to scrap the Equality Act, as that's what allows us to request reasonable adjustments at work. This also affects anyone with a health condition (including anxiety), disability or indeed anyone from a marginalised group.

Exactly Sparkle. That's why we can't just be blase about it all this time round like we have been over the past few elections.

The typical excuse 'what's the point in voting at all, they're all the same' doesn't cut it for me. And when I said to some people I know ahead of the last 2 GEs in 2017 and 2019 that they were 'part of the problem themselves by avoiding the issue by just burying their heads in the sand' they responded with remarks like 'you fascist', 'don't you oppress me', etc, but they've still relentlessly moaned for England about the (Tory) cuts over the past 5 years, and a couple of them are still refusing point blank to cast their votes on 4th July this year.

They make their own beds, so they must sleep in them. And if they come crying to me again about the cuts and the like soon after the election if the Tories win, I'll just say 'You did have the opportunity to cast your vote to help to change things on 4th July, but you didn't want to know and you pooh-poohed it again for the umpteenth time'!

[Lencoboy]

Well on Tuesday (18th June) there was one poll published by People-Polling/GB News that ominously had Labour at 35%, and Reform at 24%; the lowest for the former and the highest for the latter so far during this Election Campaign, but the most recent poll published yesterday (Wednesday 19th June) has Labour at about 40% and Reform at 19%.

I had a quick dekko at the BBC site this afternoon and they said that while a couple of recent opinion polls have had higher ratings for Reform and decreased ratings for Labour (despite Labour still remaining in the lead), the BBC site stressed that those one or two recent polls should be interpreted with caution and are very likely outliers/anomalies, rather than true representations, plus most of the other polls with less dramatic ratings for Reform are likely to be more representative.

Plus of course, that poll compiled and published by People-Polling/GB News was published the day after the official launch of Reform's 'contract' (which actually means 'manifesto', but is basically a gimmicky 'wizard word'/'buzzword' to 'stand out' from the others), so that coupled with the fact that GB News were involved are probably the main factors behind Reform's 24% rating in that particular poll.

All Reform seem to be harping on about so far during this Election Campaign is 'them pesky foreigners' (as per usual), and 'woke' culture, both of which issues most ordinary sane folk with half a brain I'm sure probably don't really give a flying fig about in the grand scheme of things.

Plus they've also allegedly stolen Cameron's 'Broken Britain' slogan from 2006-10; how unoriginal and trite!

[Lencoboy]

Well it was unfortunately revealed yesterday that one Labour candidate has been involved in the betting scandal (plus more Tory candidates were also found out), but most ironically, he actually placed a bet on him losing in his constituency, which is a 'Blue Wall' area.

Nevertheless, he has swiftly (and quite rightly) been suspended from the Labour Party until further notice, unlike the Tories who initially dithered over the suspension of their candidates embroiled in the betting scandal.

Also, the media (especially the more Right-leaning) will no doubt make a song and dance over said scandal now involving Labour and use it as a further smear campaign against them, despite it still predominantly affecting the Tories; though of course in fairness in the context of this particular scandal two wrongs don't make a right, and like I already stated above, the Labour Party as a whole are taking this matter extremely seriously and rightly taking the offending candidate to task for his misdemeanour in a speedy manner, unlike the Tory Party who were initially caught napping (as per usual) when their respective offending candidates were first caught out.

I also reckon Farage will no doubt be milking this to death, in spite of the fact that he's certainly no stranger to sleaze and corruption.

[Pain]

... it was unfortunately revealed ...

That’s an unfortunate phrase, isn’t it, Lencoboy? I mean would you rather it hadn’t been revealed?

[Lencoboy]

That’s an unfortunate phrase, isn’t it, Lencoboy? I mean would you rather it hadn’t been revealed?

Having thought about it since I posted it on here first thing this morning, you're probably not wrong.

BTW, (and surprisingly), today's national papers didn't actually make that big an issue on their front pages of that Labour candidate's involvement in 'Betgate'; only The Times seemed to have it as a standalone front-page article, but the other one (The Independent, I think) briefly covered it combined with the mention of all the other (Tory) MPs also involved in 'Betgate' so far within that same front-page article.

All the other papers (at least front-page wise) appear to have kept said debacle fairly low-key so far.